I don’t think the people excited about Linux are using or talking about Ubuntu, though, which probably skews people’s perceptions if they’re on Lemmy and Reddit a lot. Enthusiast spaces have all the “I run arch btw” people and even weirder and more obscure distros.

This is exactly the thing. 10 years ago when I was in college, everybody just used Ubuntu for laptops, and nowadays I don’t hear about it at all. I had the impression it kinda died, but seems like things are more or less the same.