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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • afaik, without a need for error correction a quantum computer with 256 bits could break an old 256 bit RSA key. RSA keys are made by taking 2 (x-1 bit) primes and multiplying them together. It is relatively simple algorithms to factor numbers that size on both classsical and quantum computers, However, the larger the number/bits, the more billions of billions of years it takes a classical computer to factor it. The limit for a quantum computer is how many “practical qubits” it has. OP’s article did not answer this, and so far no quantum computer has been able to solve factoring a number any faster than your phone can in under a half second.






  • The notion that AI will solve the climate crisis is unbelievably stupid, not because of any theory about what AI may or may not be capable of, but because we already know how to fix the climate crisis!

    Its a political problem. Nationalizing the western oil companies to prevent them from lobbying, and to invest their profits in renewables, is a solution, but no party in the CIA Overton window would support it. If war and human suffering can be made a priority over human sustainability, then oil lobbyists will promote war.


  • The example of Ukraine is discouraging to any “Taiwan militarist extremism”. What instigates an invasion or blockade of Taiwan by China is Taiwan declaring its acceptance of NATO membership, and US missile bases, or 51st state./US territory.

    Both the Taiwanese population and current parliamentary majority are against the path of national suicide that Ukraine has taken. US promise to bomb TSMC themselves, and the failure to defeat Russia, in order to focus on creating war in Taiwan is not going to have short term success in convincing Taiwanese to follow Ukraine’s stupidity. Ukraine was “blessed” with extremely hateful nationalists with ww2 and prior grudges against Russia, and an opponent that seemed to be weakening. Fortunately, Trump threatening to force Taiwan to pay for US protection instead of fomenting nazi-like extremism, with cash/weapons support of such groups, cannot possibly be successful in instigating war.


  • This is exactly why they want Taiwan

    The US wants to destabilize every country as long as destabilization means hatred of non US dominance institutions. It is not critical to China to take Taiwan by force, Taiwanese polling supports status quo at 80%, and so they don’t want to be come Ukraine puppet. Taiwan’s current parliament will not support stupid for next 4 years. Still, the danger of breaking US-China trade, or failing in extreme ultimatums against Europe, is ignoring of US export controls to the avantage of EU and Taiwan tech.

    China does have a delete America program but it could license CUDA, and Nvidia driver compatibility for purposes of giving it away to its GPU industry. Main problems listed in OP is Nvidia’s mature ecosystem that affects AMD as well. There is a “delete America” program in China that is forced by US short sightedness. It is catching up. Drivers will get stable, and yields improve. But by tariffing energy, the US becomes a terrible place to build datacenters. Solar is perfectly fine for 24/7 datacenters in any country with decent grid because the bottleneck is daytime/peak transmission, and a small battery is enough to get to low night demand that can use grid peaker resources and spare transmission capacity. Placing datacenters in non US colony countries is path to utilizing them for entire world’s AI/computing needs, as alluded to in OP.

    The shortsighted US “national security” measures look stupider the more time passes without war on China, and “delete America” progresses. US hasn’t been serious about national security in last 40 years. Just in funneling the most money possible to oligarchy with little military value returned. Naval warfare/force projection is dead strategy. China’s wealth (PPP) advantage and military production rate/value is well ahead of US, and as a manufacturing power, can be increased as well. Its aims of economic abundance are clearly more humanist than US approach, and clearly more welcome to anyone/nation not corrupt and evil.

    OP issues may be real, but if China were forced to improve the stability/ecosystem of domestic options, they can right now. China has banned Nvidia (and intel/amd) in certain sectors this week. Bosch and other German Auto sectors are investing huge in China manufacturing, and to compete in Chinese supply chain. Chinese EV, self driving, and robotics are well ahead of west even with sanctions, so that sector seems safe. Betting on China dominance 5-10 years from now is a bet you can give 10:1 odds on. Nuclear annihilation means you won’t have to pay. Time is on China’s side.




  • Batteries are getting cheaper, and have high charge/discharge rates. Flywheels can maybe double as AC/DC conversion, but their role is closer to a capacitor than a battery.

    What distinguishes H2 is that it is transportable/exportable energy, that also has alternate chemical uses. It is ideal aviation fuel. Sure making it has some expense/loss, but storing it is $1/kwh electric (also contains heat energy that when used in a fuel cell matches the typical domestic hot water energy fraction). Transporting H2 energy by truck is cheaper than electricity by wire. Because H2 can be produced at convenience (solar surplus), and made available for user convenience later, it can be cheaper energy overall, and improve the total utilization of renewable+battery/static storage systems.



  • Hydrogen/electro chemistry is another use of too much batteries.

    Speaking of too much battery, an EV range is often 3-5 times daily use (60km average per day is vehicle average, but many use less). It’s not a big deal to have several days worth of fuel in your tank, and so V2G is a good way to have too much batteries, and let consumers profit from their vehicle. This is the app that exterminates oil and other FFs. Hydrogen or your listed apps are good ways to drain having too much battery charge for the next day.







  • So launching a vehicle with a 500 mile range that can charge faster and carry less weight is something they want in their repertoire.

    Light/long range are qualities, for sure, but a $20k-$30k EV will do better than $100k EV. LFP chemistry is the cheapest. Exotic bleeding edge/vapourware is going to be expensive. Sodium ion battery tech is an even heavier alternative than LFP, but it has better cold weather and charging/discharging rate potential, and even cheaper bill of materials if Lithium or phosphate gets scarce.

    One big advantage of both LFP and Sodium Ion is very long battery life, and so the ability to pay for the battery/whole car from V2G schemes, as well as outlasting the interior/body of the car.